Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 17.170972 20.010946 23.125368 26.787584 30.969118 35.587578 41.067698
2024-10-06 12.859936 16.822829 21.628817 27.852816 35.662743 45.097963 57.315369
2024-10-13 10.498545 15.039586 20.995027 29.298538 40.483836 54.923137 74.848790
2024-10-20 8.281038 12.837556 19.230081 28.720221 42.287370 60.789356 87.686357
2024-10-27 6.473387 10.784657 17.213525 27.308427 42.518842 64.280768 97.375793
2024-11-03 5.876534 10.395086 17.481334 29.131058 47.447248 74.680497 117.609258
2024-11-10 5.498525 10.265098 18.084642 31.473350 53.325358 86.923755 141.557490
2024-11-17 4.808435 9.479252 17.496193 31.790253 55.997785 94.462859 158.934449
2024-11-24 4.114757 8.559249 16.533375 31.322028 57.275590 99.835386 173.258457
2024-12-01 3.471239 7.614994 15.380940 30.348011 57.537513 103.497468 185.007083
2024-12-08 3.043408 7.014048 14.760899 30.225949 59.215756 109.580188 201.145692
2024-12-15 2.702088 6.528981 14.287125 30.299373 61.214010 116.316350 218.836362
2024-12-22 2.209386 5.657726 12.983260 28.725350 60.216925 118.093772 228.775680
2024-12-29 2.014009 5.423067 12.962162 29.730464 64.298658 129.488902 257.057983
2025-01-05 1.879500 5.305533 13.172120 31.236761 69.524420 143.456909 291.205611
2025-01-12 1.609561 4.796395 12.433855 30.618301 70.381113 149.220876 310.507721
2025-01-19 1.327840 4.191020 11.369616 29.120756 69.214837 150.914309 322.122189
2025-01-26 1.278881 4.207145 11.790010 31.052359 75.568215 168.038637 365.111932
2025-02-02 1.258479 4.300459 12.413777 33.533983 83.365586 188.686525 416.570374
2025-02-09 1.135291 4.063995 12.160538 33.869657 86.383795 199.701070 449.357864
2025-02-16 0.992263 3.732694 11.602846 33.373675 87.432693 206.638294 474.252618
2025-02-23 0.848753 3.363227 10.876515 32.341795 87.095165 210.538676 493.030403
2025-03-02 0.755236 3.137481 10.515166 32.212470 88.902451 219.254761 522.661868